The latest survey released on Wednesday presents a tie between the coalition AD and the Socialist Party (PS) ahead of the legislative elections on May 18. This follows an earlier poll by Pitagórica at the beginning of the week, which indicated an increase in AD’s lead over the PS.
The CESOP – Universidade Católica Portuguesa poll, conducted for RTP, Antena 1, and Público, estimates the coalition to garner 29% of voter intentions, while the Socialists stand at 27%. The poll’s margin of error is 2.8%.
A common element with the previous survey is the anticipated loss of votes for the three major parties, with IL (Iniciativa Liberal), BE (Bloco de Esquerda), and Livre experiencing growth.
In the case of Chega, the latest poll projects 17%, while the Iniciativa Liberal is expected to claim 8% of the vote intentions.
According to this estimation, both Bloco de Esquerda and Livre are projected to secure 5% of the vote intentions. Meanwhile, the CDU is forecasted to receive 3%, and PAN to secure 2%.
CESOP estimates that 10% of last year’s Iniciativa Liberal voters will now vote for the coalition AD, although the possibility of a single party attaining an absolute majority is very low.
The Socialist Party is expected to attract 21% of votes from the CDU and 11% from PAN, as indicated by the poll.
Among those surveyed, 75% affirmed their certainty in voting on May 18.
The survey was conducted between March 17 and 26, 2025, following the government’s collapse, with 1,206 effective responses collected via telephone calls from a total of 4,177 attempts. The margin of error is 2.8%, with a 95% confidence level.
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