A new report released in Paris during the SOS Oceans event, organized by the French presidency and the Oceano Azul Foundation, highlights concerns from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that the sustained growth of the ocean economy over the past 25 years may not continue.
The report, titled ‘The Ocean Economy in 2050,’ warns, “It is necessary to address the increasing pressures to maintain the ocean economy on a path that contributes to sustainable economic development, providing jobs on which millions depend.”
This comprehensive analysis, both quantitative and qualitative, underscores that ocean health is crucial not only for climate and biodiversity but also for economic stability.
Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface, make up 90% of the biosphere, ensure food security for over three billion people, enable the transportation of more than 80% of global merchandise, and host submarine cables carrying 98% of the international Internet traffic.
Between 1995 and 2020, according to OECD data, the ocean accounted for 3% to 4% of the global gross value added (GVA) and provided up to 133 million full-time equivalent jobs.
In this period, the global ocean economy doubled in real terms—from .3 trillion in GVA in 1995 to .6 trillion in 2020—growing at an average annual rate of 2.8%.
The report projects that if this trend were to continue, the global ocean economy could be nearly four times larger by 2050 compared to 1995. However, it cautions that “various forces might slow or even reverse growth by 2050 if actions are not taken.”
Factors such as population growth, climate change, other environmental pressures, trade and globalization, energy transitions, technological advancements, and geopolitical dynamics will shape ocean health and the future growth trajectory of the ocean economy. The pace of the global energy transition could significantly affect ocean economic growth.
In a scenario of rapid transition to low-carbon energy, the ocean economy could continue expanding by 2050, reaching about 2.5 times its 1995 size. However, a stagnation in this transition could lead to a decline in ocean economic activity relative to the 2020 levels, primarily due to a lack of investment in productivity and the increasing negative impacts of climate change on many areas of the ocean economy.
The OECD identifies four strategic priorities to foster a productive and environmentally sustainable ocean economy: enhancing ocean governance, promoting technological innovation, improving ocean data collection, and ensuring the inclusion of developing countries in global value chains.
To reinforce ocean governance, the report suggests using scientific management tools that balance economic and environmental priorities, such as marine spatial planning and marine protected areas.
Governments are also encouraged to advance technological innovation and digital transformation, particularly through automation and robotics, to boost productivity and competitiveness while reducing environmental externalities.
Improving ocean observation data collection and scientific research is deemed crucial, with only 25% of the seabed currently mapped.
The report emphasizes the importance of expanding participation of developing countries in the ocean economy, while safeguarding environmental damage by encouraging policies such as sustainable fishery management and incentives for eco-tourism.
