Production cuts implemented at the end of 2022, amounting to two million barrels per day of crude oil, will remain in effect “until December 31, 2026,” as resolved in the previous ministerial conference, the oil ministers of the 22 member countries of the alliance confirmed in their final statement published on the website of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The decision, ratified via teleconference, does not include potential production increases that eight of its members may agree upon, as these countries aim to conclude the return of the barrels they voluntarily withdrew in 2023 and 2024 to support prices.
These countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—have been agreeing on monthly increases in their oil production since last April. The latest increase, of 137,000 barrels per day, takes effect on Monday.
In total, if they adhere to the agreement, they will have increased their oil supply by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day by December, which accounts for about 2.8% of global production.
The group still has just over one million barrels per day to reverse the reductions, but in their last meeting, they decided to suspend production increases during the first quarter of 2026, a measure confirmed today in a teleconference.
“The eight participating countries reaffirmed their decision of November 2, 2025, to suspend production increases in January, February, and March of 2026,” declared the respective ministers in a statement.
Regarding the volumes that remain voluntarily reduced, they stated that these “could be reversed partially or entirely,” always gradually and “depending on market conditions,” and that they continue to meet monthly to assess the situation and potentially readjust production quotas.
The production increase implemented this year represents a strategic shift for the alliance, aiming to regain part of the market share lost due to the cuts, and has contributed to the downward trend in crude prices, which have moved significantly away from peaks of over 80 dollars recorded at the start of the year.
According to analysts, the additional barrels produced by OPEC+ have fueled concerns that supply could exceed weak demand in a sector marked by significant uncertainty due to various geopolitical conflicts, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to escalating tensions between Washington and Caracas.
On Friday, the price of Brent crude (a reference for Europe) for January delivery fell 0.22% to 63.20 dollars. The same trend was followed by WTI (West Texas Intermediate), a global reference and the main benchmark for oil prices in the United States, which closed down 0.17% to 58.55 dollars.
These declines occur at a time when there is a possibility of progress in a peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow, which could lead to the lifting of Western sanctions against Russia.
The next ministerial conference of the entire OPEC+ (OPEC and allies) is scheduled for June 7, 2026.
OPEC was founded in 1960 in Baghdad by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait. In 2016, the group agreed to cooperate with another 10 countries, including Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, forming the OPEC+ alliance.
