Political analysts believe the government has gained greater negotiation power in parliament following the result of the PSD in the local elections. They expect the three municipalities won by Chega to be a test of the party’s quality cadre.
Conceição Pequito, a professor at the Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas (ISCSP) of the University of Lisbon, noted that in Sunday’s local elections, the PSD “strengthened its position” nationally by becoming the top municipal party and winning the National Association of Portuguese Municipalities (ANMP), a development not seen in many years.
“The party is truly reinforced as it achieves all the goals it set. This is an increase in legitimacy that translates into greater negotiating power with other political forces, notably with PS and Chega,” stated Pequito.
Describing the PSD as the “convincing winner” of the local elections, Pequito also considered that the PS “also emerged a winner in the sense that its decline and erosion among its electorate did not occur as might have been expected from its last performance” in the legislative elections.
“By finishing second, the PS managed to halt the legislative results,” Pequito remarked, sharing an opinion echoed by Paula Espírito Santo, also a professor at ISCSP, who highlighted that the Socialist Party “managed to recover” in these local elections.
Without over-extrapolating the local elections to the national level, due to their “unique dynamics” and strong dependency on local factors, Espírito Santo noted that the particular nature of these elections accounts for the outcome of Chega, a recent party with almost no local presence, which “began its municipal journey in 2021.”
“Despite the dynamic, strength, and growth at the legislative level of Chega, it can be said this does not reflect locally. This is the clear conclusion from these elections: they follow a different logic, significantly dependent on the proximity of recognized and notable figures, especially locally,” she stated.
Therefore, she continued, the three municipalities conquered by Chega in these elections—Albufeira, Entroncamento, and São Vicente—will be a “very important test” for the party, not only in “management and satisfaction relative to the populations but also in negotiation,” as it didn’t secure any absolute majority in any municipality.
“This negotiation capability will be essential for the executives to be functional and, after four years, to have a productive effect and notoriety among the population,” she added.
Pequito also regarded the three municipalities as “a test for Chega,” to demonstrate it is not “a one-man party” and can “attract and promote quality political cadres.”
The political scientists further agreed that, although the legislative elections indicated a possible end to bipartisanship at the national level, this was not evident municipally. Espírito Santo attributed this to local elections not being as reliant on national leadership but more on “local performances.”
Pequito emphasized that while the bipartisanship of the Portuguese political system might have been “questioned” during the legislative elections, it remains “fully present” municipally, due to intense competition in many municipalities between the “two traditional and historic parties of Portuguese democracy”: PS and PSD.
