Less than two months before the anticipated legislative elections, the latest Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN, JN, and TSF indicates a growing lead for the AD (34.4%) over the PS (27.8%) with a gap of nearly seven points, 6.6 percentage points.
If these results hold, Luís Montenegro’s government emerges stronger, yet still without an absolute majority.
The coalition of PSD and CDS appears to be recovering and reversing the losses from the early March poll, a period marked by controversy surrounding Luís Montenegro’s family business.
The PS only maintains an advantage among the youth and lower-income classes. Among older voters, there is a tie between the two parties.
According to this latest poll, men were primarily responsible for boosting AD’s support over PS during March. Among women, the difference is less pronounced, but more women prefer the PSD/CDS coalition.
Notably, there is a rising number of undecided voters at 18.6%, which alone could shift the results.
Chega, with 14.9%, is the party experiencing the most losses compared to the last legislative elections, yet it remains the third political force and has the fewest undecided voters among its electorate.
The Livre, in fifth place with 5.5% voting intentions, just behind the Liberal Initiative (6%), is the party growing the most amid the political crisis, gaining nearly 3 percentage points. It surpasses CDU (3.4%) and BE (2.7%), while PAN, with only 0.5%, would not enter Parliament.
The poll was conducted from March 24 to 29, 2025, following the government’s collapse. It collected 1,000 successful responses via telephone from a total of 1,626 attempts. The margin of error is approximately 3.6%, with a confidence interval of 95.5%.
