The National Institute of Statistics (INE) released today the results of the Resident Population Projections exercise for 2024 to 2100, concluding that by the turn of the next century, there will be significantly fewer people living in Portugal: 8.3 million inhabitants, with more elderly and considerably fewer children and young people.
Portugal is projected to experience a population decline from the current 10.7 to 8.3 million people. The number of young individuals up to 15 years old is expected to decrease from 1.4 million to less than one million, while the elderly population will rise from 2.6 to 3.1 million, according to a central projection scenario.
Researchers also outlined a scenario envisioning an increase in life expectancy and other factors, which could see the elderly population reaching 4.2 million.
Every scenario indicates a country with fewer young people and more elderly. The aging index, which compares the population of those at least 65 years old to children up to the age of 15, could significantly increase by 2100, from the current 192 to 316 elderly per 100 young people.
The national figure conceals regional disparities, such as in the Azores and Madeira Islands and the northern region, which may face substantial imbalances between the younger and older populations.
Particularly noteworthy is the Autonomous Region of the Azores, currently deemed the least aged region in the country, with only 128 elderly per 100 young people. However, by 2100, it is projected to become the third oldest, with “405 elderly per 100 young people.”
Last year, the Center was the most aged area in the country, but the newly drawn scenarios by experts indicate that by 2100, the title will shift to the northern region, where the aging index is expected to surge from the current 205 elderly to 475.
In Madeira, the aging index is projected to soar from the current 179 elderly to 442 per 100 children by 2100, according to the projections by INE, which highlight the Algarve as the least aged future region.
Researchers emphasize that these projections consider more positive migration balances and fertility levels, which have helped alleviate the pace of population aging but have not been able to stop it.
“The aging index in Portugal will gradually increase until 2060, where it is expected to stabilize,” writes the INE, acknowledging that in the early 22nd century there will be significantly fewer people of working age (4.2 million), leading to nearly double the current elderly dependency ratio.
Currently, there are 39 elderly per 100 people of working age, but by 2100, in a central scenario, there will be 73 elderly per 100 people of working age.
Again, the national average conceals regional realities: “The autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, which in 2024 record the lowest number of elderly per 100 people of working age (26 and 32, respectively), could have by 2100, in the central scenario, an elderly dependency ratio of 84 and 87, respectively, only surpassed by the North (with 97 elderly per 100 people aged 15 to 64),” explains the INE.
INE emphasizes that the results of the projections released today are based on different scenarios, illustrating various potential population developments and depict possible trajectories.
For each component, three evolution hypotheses were considered: central, optimistic, and pessimistic, “since future levels of fertility, mortality, and migration cannot be established with certainty,” and thus the results attempt to illustrate possible future outcomes, “despite there being no certainty about the eventual realization of any future result.”
The projections “illustrate possible population variation trajectories, with results conditioned by the structure and composition of the starting population and the different hypotheses of evolution in fertility, mortality, and migration over the projection period.”
