“Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in volume, registered a year-on-year variation of 2.4% in the 3rd quarter of 2025, after increasing by 1.8% in the previous quarter,” reports INE.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP increased by 0.8% in volume, following a growth of 0.7% in the previous quarter.
These numbers represent an acceleration of economic activity both year-on-year and quarterly, surpassing economists’ forecasts, who had anticipated a slowing down to between 0.3% and 0.6%.
According to INE, year-on-year growth benefited from a less pronounced negative contribution of net external demand, “reflecting the acceleration of exports of goods and services and a slight slowdown in imports of goods and services.”
Conversely, the positive contribution of domestic demand to the year-on-year GDP change “remained close to that seen in the previous quarter, with an acceleration in private consumption and a slowdown in investment.”
Regarding the quarter-on-quarter variation, domestic demand provided greater impetus, with an acceleration in private consumption, while “the contribution of net external demand was more negative, with the acceleration of imports of goods and services being more pronounced than that of exports of goods and services.”
This is a quick estimate at 30 days, with more detailed results on the evolution of the Quarterly National Accounts to be released on November 30.
It should be noted that for the entire year, the Government forecasts a 2% GDP growth, according to the estimates in the State Budget for 2026.
The Bank of Portugal, Public Finance Council, IMF, and OECD estimate growth of 1.9% this year, while the European Commission projects that GDP will grow by 1.8%.
[News update]
