The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October from Mozambique’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) shows that the nation experienced a price increase of 0.47% compared to September’s rise of 0.29%, largely influenced by the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector, contributing negatively with 0.32 percentage points to the total monthly variation.
An analysis of the CPI’s monthly product variation highlights price increases in tomatoes (12.0%), dried fish (3.0%), dried shrimp (16.8%), horse mackerel (1.0%), firewood (7.6%), and lemons (48.1%): “These contributed approximately 0.39 positive percentage points to the total monthly variation.”
Mozambique had previously recorded eight monthly declines in the consumer price index within a year and a half, four of which were between April and July, with increases resuming in August, September, and October.
The INE also notes that compared to 2024, the CPI indicates a year-on-year price increase in October of 4.83% (compared to 4.93% in September and 4.79% in August), mainly influenced by the food and non-alcoholic beverages sectors, as well as restaurants, hotels, cafes, and similar sectors, which rose by 10.41% and 7.29%, respectively, over the year.
The cumulative inflation for 2024 stands at 4.15%, according to previous INE data, which compares to 5.3% in 2023, but remains below the peak of nearly 13% reached in July 2022.
The government forecasts that Mozambique will end 2025 with inflation around 7%.
The Bank of Mozambique estimates that annual inflation will continue to slow down in the coming months, reflecting the decision to waive VAT on some basic products and reduce toll fees by up to 60%.
“In the short term, a continuation of the annual inflation slowdown trend is expected, reflecting the impact of VAT exemption on basic products (sugar, edible oil, and soap), the downward adjustment of water tariffs and tolls, and the decline in food prices in the international market, within a context of metical stability,” reads a previous Economic Outlook and Inflation Perspectives report.
