The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August as reported by Mozambique’s National Statistics Institute indicates that the country recorded a price increase of 0.68% compared to July. This change was significantly influenced by the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector, which contributed a negative 0.63 percentage points to the total monthly variation.
Breaking down the monthly variation by product, notable price increases include dried fish (30.2%), corn (11.3%), garlic (20.3%), potatoes (9.9%), dried shrimp (6.3%), okra (10.2%), and fruit juices (1.2%). These collectively contributed approximately 0.69 positive percentage points to the total monthly variation.
Mozambique had previously observed eight monthly declines in the consumer price index within less than a year and a half, with four declines occurring between April and July.
The INE also notes that, compared to 2024, the CPI showed an annual price increase of 4.79% in August (up from 3.96% in July). This rise is primarily driven by the food and non-alcoholic beverages, and the restaurants, hotels, cafes, and similar services divisions, which increased by 11.91% and 9.01% respectively over the year.
The accumulated inflation for 2024, based on previous INE data, stood at 4.15%, compared to 5.3% in 2023, yet below the peak of nearly 13% recorded in July 2022.
The government anticipates that Mozambique will end 2025 with inflation around 7%.
The Bank of Mozambique estimates that annual inflation will continue to decelerate in the coming months, reflecting the recent decision to exempt some basic products from VAT and to reduce toll tariffs by up to 60%.
“In the short term, a continued slowdown in annual inflation is expected, reflecting the impact of the VAT exemption on basic products (sugar, cooking oil, and soap), the reduction in water and toll tariffs, and the decline in food prices in the international market, in a context of stability of the metical,” reads the Economic Conjuncture and Inflation Outlook report, previously reported by Lusa.
The document also highlights the findings of a regular survey of economic agents, which supports the prospects of slowing annual inflation. The macroeconomic expectations of economic agents revealed in the May study point to an annual inflation rate of 4.90% in December 2025, which marks a downward revision of 3 basis points compared to expectations published in the April survey.
“However, considerable risks and uncertainties persist, primarily of an internal nature, that pose challenges to maintaining this scenario, notably the impacts of the deteriorating fiscal situation, uncertainty regarding the pace of recovery in productive capacity and the supply of goods and services, as well as the effects of climate shocks,” the report adds.
