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Rates? Fitch Ratings foresees global impact and fears “a recession or worse”

The head of economic analysis at Fitch in the United States stated in a Wednesday press release that the country’s tariffs on all imports now average 22%, compared to 2.5% in 2024.

Olu Sonola observed that this rate was last seen around 1910, over a century ago.

“This is a game-changer, not just for the U.S. economy, but for the global economy. Many countries are likely to end up in recession,” particularly if the tariffs remain in place for an extended period, the analyst emphasized.

The editorial board of the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal also stated that potential retaliation by countries affected by the tariffs could lead to “a contraction of global trade and a recession or worse”.

Trump announced on Wednesday the imposition of “reciprocal tariffs” on imports, including 25% on all foreign automobiles.

“It won’t be [full reciprocity]… we could charge the total [of tariffs applied by other countries]… we’ll charge half,” Trump said, displaying a table showing the level of trade and non-trade barriers on American products in various countries and markets and what Washington will start charging as of Thursday.

According to the aforementioned table, China applies tariffs of 67% on American products, and their products will now pay 34% to enter the United States. European Union (EU) countries will pay 20% tariffs, half of the estimated 39% trade and non-trade barriers.

“We think the European Union is very friendly, but they rob us. It’s very sad to see this. It’s so pathetic; [they tax U.S. products at] 39%, we’re going to charge them 20%,” Trump stressed.

To access the American market, Japanese products will now pay 24%, Indian products 26%, Taiwanese products 32%, and Vietnamese products 46%.

The United Kingdom and Brazil will have 10% tariffs applied, corresponding to what is applied to American products, Trump added.

“We call this friendly reciprocity,” Trump said, emphasizing he “would like” to implement “full reciprocity.”

Other countries highlighted by Trump included Switzerland, Indonesia, South Korea, and South Africa.

The specific tariffs for each country or economic bloc, like the EU, will begin to be applied starting April 9, according to White House officials speaking to the press.

The base tariff of 10% will start being applied earlier, on Saturday, April 5, according to sources cited by the Efe news agency.

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