A survey conducted between February 21 and March 19, 2025, involving a broad sample of 1,500 to 2,500 Italian companies within the industrial and service sectors, reveals that in the first quarter of 2025, there is a prevailing pessimistic outlook regarding short-term operational prospects among businesses, as outlined by the Bank of Italy.
The report indicates that global uncertainty has particularly impacted companies in the industrial sector, which are apprehensive about the consequences of international projections.
“Specifically, 44% of exporting companies expect that restrictive U.S. trade policies will negatively affect their sales volume in the U.S. over the next 12 months, with a medium to high intensity in about two-thirds of the cases,” the report states, noting that the concern is more pronounced among companies in the northwest of the country.
In addition to worries arising from U.S. trade policies, the trends in gas, electricity, and oil prices, along with global economic forecasts, remain constant concerns for Italian businesses.
However, the report highlights an improvement in sales performance assessments, both current and for the next quarter, particularly in the manufacturing sector, spurred by external demand. There is also a forecast for employment growth across all sectors for the next quarter, with “moderate” wage increases.
In the construction sector, evaluations concerning demand and operating conditions remain better than in the rest of the economy, although the activity of companies primarily operating in the residential sector has decreased.
Despite unfavorable investment conditions, nominal investment expenditures are expected to rise in 2025 by Italian companies, in line with forecasts from previous surveys.
Over the past year, prices have increased at a slightly more sustained pace in the industry, while they have decreased in the service and construction sectors.
Over the next 12 months, price increases are expected to remain moderate, although consumer inflation expectations have risen across all forecast horizons, staying below 2%.
