Portugal returned to the polls just over a year after the last election, resulting in a significant reshaping of national politics. Sunday’s early legislative elections saw a victory for AD, impacting the PS, potentially positioning Chega ahead, and also affecting the Bloco de Esquerda. Here is a summary of the election night.
The Ministry of Internal Administration’s general-secretariat announced that the AD (PSD/CDS) emerged victorious, securing 86 deputies, an increase of 10 compared to the 2024 elections (excluding the diaspora constituencies yet to be accounted for). Additionally, the coalition comprising the PSD, CDS-PP, and PPM in the Azores maintained their position by electing three deputies, consistent with the previous year.
Altogether, these two coalitions now hold 89 deputies, an increase of 10 compared to 2024.
The PS was among the night’s losers, electing 58 deputies, a decrease from 77 in the previous legislative elections. This result marked one of the poorest in the party’s history, leading to Pedro Nuno Santos’ resignation.
The PS achieved its third-worst results in legislative history, nearly tying with Chega, prompting its leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, to resign a year and a half after his election.
Chega is now ‘neck and neck’ with the PS, electing 58 deputies, an increase of 10 from 2024, while the IL gained one more deputy, now holding nine mandates.
The Livre was a solitary winner on the Left, gaining two more deputies than the previous year, totaling six deputies, while the CDU (PCP/PEV) lost one deputy, reducing from four to three.
The Livre emerged as the big winner on the left in Sunday’s election night, increasing its number of deputies from four to six, despite the bittersweet victory due to Chega’s growth.
The Bloco de Esquerda’s parliamentary presence shrank from five deputies to a single deputy (party coordinator Mariana Mortágua herself), while the PAN ‘retained’ Inês Sousa Real, who will continue to have a seat in Parliament.
The Assembly now has a newcomer after Juntos Pelo Povo (JPP) elected Filipe Sousa.
The first attempt by Juntos Pelo Povo to enter the Assembly was in 2015, and they’ve persisted ever since. After ousting the socialists in regional elections two months ago, they make history again, now on the mainland.
This composition does not yet include voters residing abroad, whose participation and choices will be known on May 28.
Reactions from the three largest political forces… and consequences
At the end of the election night, the president of the PSD stated that the Portuguese cast a “vote of confidence” in the AD, the Government, and the prime minister, indicating a desire for the Executive to engage in dialogue, expected also from the oppositions.
“The people have spoken and exercised their sovereign power. In the privacy of their freedom, they unequivocally approved a vote of confidence in the Government, in the AD and in the prime minister”, he declared, adding that “the Portuguese people want this Government and no other.”
Furthermore, he maintained that he “doesn’t see another governmental solution,” urging everyone to “respect the will of the Portuguese”, and when asked about maintaining his stance towards Chega, he declared consistency.
From the PS side, having achieved its third-worst legislative result, Pedro Nuno Santos broke his silence to announce his resignation a year and a half after his election. The socialist leader stated he does not “want to be an obstacle to the decisions” the PS must make, and he will also assess whether to continue as a deputy.
“I do not want to hinder the party in the decisions it has to make. I said I could never support this Government,” he stated. “I believe the party should not either, as it shouldn’t support a government led by someone who couldn’t separate politics from their business,” he noted.
Pedro Nuno Santos also mentioned having agreed with the PS president to call a National Commission for the coming Saturday, where he will call for internal elections, to which he will not be a candidate.
“As Mário Soares said, only those who give up fighting are defeated, and I will not stop fighting. See you soon. Thank you all,” concluded Pedro Nuno Santos.
On another front, André Ventura celebrated victory, claiming that Chega achieved “what no party had ever done in Portugal” and ended “bipartisanship.”
He asserted, “Chega surpassed the party of Mário Soares, António Guterres. Chega killed Álvaro Cunhal’s party. Chega wiped the Bloco de Esquerda off the map,” he proclaimed.
The Chega leader also emphasized that the next government “depends solely on Chega,” though he did not clarify if he would enable the next Executive’s program in Parliament.
“The Portuguese know that Chega has always strived to be a bastion of stability, firmness against corruption, entrenched interests, refusing to give an inch. […] Yet I also want to stress that Chega has always been a responsible party. It has become a party of power and governance on its own merit and will honor that tradition,” he declared.
“There will be time to discuss governance and scenarios,” he concluded.
What to Expect?
In this new legislature, a two-thirds majority formed only by elected members of PSD and PS, or the AD (PSD/CDS-PP) and PS will no longer exist, even if all four overseas mandates went to these political forces. It is already known that the President of the Republic is willing to delay appointing the prime minister to allow time for parties to negotiate a government program that can pass Parliament.
Currently, several scenarios are on the table, and initially, if no one advances with a no-confidence motion to the Government’s program—potentially from the PCP, as last year—there will be no major initial difficulties, and the Executive will pass without problems, leading to Luís Montenegro being nominated prime minister. However, Chega is crucial in this matter, and although it is unlikely that Chega would vote in favor of any PCP no-confidence motion, Ventura left the discussion for the coming days.
With PS weakened and now without a leader, it lacks the strength to block the AD Executive, although it could let it pass unless it allies with Chega. This scenario is improbable. Last year, it is recalled, the PS abstained from the PCP’s no-confidence motion and Chega voted against.
Noticeably, the AD alone has more deputies than the Left.
The scenario becomes more complicated with the passage of time and the State Budget, which will again depend on Chega or the positive influence of the PS, which might ally with the AD, will again be a test for the Executive.
