“We do not see a recession in our forecast, but the probability of a recession has increased from 25% in October to about 40%,” stated the IMF’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, during the launch of the World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The IMF estimates that “growth in the United States will slow to 1.8%,” which is 0.9 percentage points lower than “the projection in the January 2025 WEO update, due to greater political uncertainty, trade tensions, and weaker demand dynamics,” according to the WEO.
“This is not about a recession,” Gourinchas assured, explaining that the U.S. economy, according to the entity, “is coming from a position of strength.” However, he warned that both consumer spending and consumer confidence are declining in the country.
This WEO is the first to incorporate the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on trade partners, and it was made clear in its presentation that all countries have been negatively affected.
The IMF has revised its global economic growth forecasts downward, predicting 2.8% growth this year, compared to the 3.3% forecasted in January.
For 2026, the IMF estimates growth at 3%, lower than the 3.3% projected in January.
“Growth prospects could improve immediately if countries were to ease their current trade stance and foster a new, clear, and stable trade environment. The global economy needs a clear, stable, and predictable trade environment,” concluded the economist.
