Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo has, for the first time, lost his lead in the presidential election polls for next year. The candidate fell to third place, being overtaken by Luís Marques Mendes, who now leads, and André Ventura, according to the latest Intercampus barometer for Correio da Manhã, CMTV, and Jornal de Negócios.
It is evident that Henrique Gouveia e Melo has been declining since July, but the downward trend became pronounced this month. The candidate lost more than five percentage points, dropping from 20.6% in July to 15.4% in voting intentions.
Currently at the forefront is Luís Marques Mendes, favored by 16.6% of respondents. However, this is a decrease from July, when he was preferred by 17.2% of participants.
André Ventura, meanwhile, has significantly increased his votes, garnering 15.8% of the intentions. This indicates a rise of 5.2 percentage points compared to previous months, when he was suggested as a potential candidate.
It is important to note that a technical tie persists given the narrow margin between the three candidates.
António José Seguro retains fourth place, preferred by 12.3% of those surveyed.
And in a second round? Ventura loses in any scenario
In a head-to-head between Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo, the social democrat narrowly leads the admiral by 4.2 percentage points, a margin near the error rate.
Gouveia e Melo leads again against Seguro, with a 3 percentage point margin, which significantly widens in a contest against Ventura (61.2% versus 29.4%).
If the admiral exits the race, the social democrat wins regardless of the competitor, although the lead is larger against the leader of Chega.
In a confrontation between Seguro and Ventura, the socialist prevails with nearly double the vote intentions. Indeed, according to the study, Chega’s president consistently loses in a second round, irrespective of the opponent.
This Intercampus survey included 609 telephone interviews conducted between October 20 and 26. The response rate was 57.9%, with a 4% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval.
