According to data from Tourism Economics, international tourism to the United States is expected to decrease by 9.4% in 2025. This decline is attributed to the aggressive border policies implemented by the Trump administration, representing a complete reversal from the previously anticipated growth of 9%.
Despite these projections, TAP, for whom the USA is a key market, remains “confident in the success of its routes” to the country. A spokesperson confirmed that, over the next three months, TAP plans to introduce three new routes: Lisbon/Los Angeles, Porto/Boston, and Terceira/San Francisco.
With the addition of these new routes, TAP will achieve a historic record of 101 flights per week to North America, encompassing both the United States and Canada.
The airline’s spokesperson stated, “We have a team in the United States in contact with travel agencies, continuously gathering information on travel trends.”
Similarly, United Airlines’ Director of Atlantic/Hawaii Planning, Darren Scott, noted that “international demand for long-haul flights remains strong,” with the company’s services in Portugal “performing in line with expectations.”
The U.S. Embassy in Portugal was queried about any complaints or concerns from Portuguese citizens facing difficulties entering the U.S. The embassy, through spokesperson Marie Blanchard, stated that they were unaware of any such issues, emphasizing that “rules have not changed, and every potential traveler to the United States undergoes a rigorous interagency security screening.”
Data from Tourism Economics highlights a shift in border procedures, which now involve more extended interviews, smartphone searches, and, in some cases, summary entry revocations, detentions, and deportations.
Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, explained that reports of various European tourists being searched and detained upon arrival in the USA had significantly impacted international travelers’ plans.
On March 28, Portugal joined the list of countries that updated travel advisories, including specific warnings about gender identity and clarified that holding a visa does not guarantee automatic entry.
Today, Benjamin Smith, CEO of Air France-KLM, shared with CNBC that the airline noticed a “slight slowdown” in ticket sales for economy seats on routes between Europe and the United States. However, sales return to normal levels when prices are slightly reduced.
The airline’s first-quarter results will be released on April 30, at which point further adjustments may be considered, according to Smith.
In Portugal, American tourists have significantly contributed to the sector’s growth. Last year, 5.1 million overnight stays by non-residents were from American tourists, marking a 12% increase compared to 2023 and accounting for about 9% of the total, which exceeded 56 million stays (+4.7%), according to the National Statistics Institute (INE).
American tourists’ spending rose by 11.6% to 279 million euros in 2024, making them the fourth-highest spenders, surpassed only by tourists from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.
