According to the study, included in the document presented at the launch of the company’s reprivatization after the decree-law was approved by the Council of Ministers on Thursday, mergers like that of Air France with KLM or the acquisition of SWISS by Lufthansa enabled buyers to achieve efficiency gains between 4% and 9% of the acquired company’s revenue.
Applying these proportions to TAP—considering revenues of 4.2 billion euros in 2024—the average potential for synergies is around 7%, which corresponds to approximately 300 million euros annually.
The case with the most significant impact was the Air France-KLM merger, with synergies of 9.2% of the target’s revenue, equating to 390 million euros for TAP.
The acquisition of SWISS by Lufthansa generated estimated synergies of 8%, or 339 million euros in comparable values. Other examples include Austrian Airlines (4.2%) and Iberia (8.3%).
The analysis was released on the day the government formally launched the process of TAP’s reprivatization, with the possibility of selling up to 44.9% of the capital to a strategic investor, keeping the state as the majority shareholder.
One of the admission criteria for proposals is precisely for the buyer to be an airline with relevant size, surpassing TAP, or a consortium led by an airline.
According to data in the same document, TAP transported around 16 million passengers in 2024, positioning it below major European groups such as Lufthansa (131 million), IAG (122 million), and Air France-KLM (98 million), but at a similar level to Aegean (16 million) and below Finnair (12 million) or LOT (11 million).
The Portuguese airline currently operates with a fleet of 99 aircraft, also below the major groups. Lufthansa operates 735 aircraft, IAG, owner of Iberia, 686, and Air France-KLM 564.
These three companies have so far been the only ones officially expressing interest in the TAP reprivatization process.
After the president promulgates the privatization decree-law, interested parties have two months to position themselves. Subsequently, stages for submitting non-binding and then binding proposals follow. The final negotiation phase is optional.
The government believes the process could be completed within a year, but the timeline will always depend on the Brussels approval of the sale.
