The forecast followed the announcement that the volume of global merchandise trade surged rapidly in the first quarter, with annual growth at 5.3% and a quarter-to-quarter increase of 3.6%.
This upward trend is linked to the rise in North American imports, which preceded tariff hikes that began in April and were implemented subsequently.
Previously, the WTO had projected global trade growth of 2.5% for 2025.
In the United States, imports rose nearly frenetically in the first quarter, up 25% from the previous year, before declining by 1% in April and May.
In this context, the analysis released today by the WTO suggests trade among countries will slow for the rest of the year.
“The combination of accumulated inventories and the effective implementation of new tariffs will weigh on global demand,” the report explains.
Donald Trump announced on Saturday that 30% tariffs would be imposed on EU and Mexican products starting August 1, a decision criticized by the European Commission president, who stated the EU was ready to “continue working towards a trade agreement” with Washington.
