The Portuguese government estimates that in the perspective of public accounting, where the inflow and outflow of money are considered, the social security surplus will reach 6.5764 billion euros.
This figure is higher than the predicted balance for this year (5.635 billion euros) as well as the amount initially budgeted (5.659 billion euros).
The forecast for total social security revenue for the upcoming year is 49.3587 billion euros, marking an increase compared to the 45.7087 billion euros projected for execution in 2025, and the budgeted amount for this year (45.0457 billion euros).
The report notes, “It is expected that revenue from contributions and quotas for 2026 will increase by 6.9%, reaching 32.0912 billion euros.” It highlights that this performance will be significantly influenced by the recovery at the macroeconomic level, notably the unemployment rate (at 6%), the employment growth rate of 0.9%, as well as the projected real GDP growth (2.3%) and worker remuneration increase (4.9%).
Regarding the forecast for total social security expenses, the government anticipates they will reach 42.9202 billion euros in 2026, an increase compared to the 40.0737 billion euros expected for execution in 2025, and surpassing the budgeted amount (39.3868 billion euros).
The government projects that spending on pensions and their respective supplements, “including those associated with the substitute scheme for bankers,” will total 26.3576 billion euros.
For unemployment benefits and employment support, the government predicts an expenditure of 1.7401 billion euros in 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.9% compared to this year’s projected execution.
Concerning the Social Security Financial Stabilization Fund (FEFSS), the executive estimates that the asset portfolio value at the end of 2025 will be around 15% of GDP (41.2 billion euros) and 216.9% of the annual pension expenditure.
Moreover, the government states that, following the policy of diversifying social security financing sources, transfers from the state budget earmarked for this fund (also known as the social security financial cushion) are planned, with a “transfer of 162.6 million euros from the additional municipal property tax (AIMI) and 493.6 million euros from corporate income tax (IRC) revenue.”
The government submitted the 2026 State Budget to parliament today, just before the deadline and three days ahead of the municipal elections on Sunday.
In the macroeconomic scenario, the PSD/CDS-PP government forecasts GDP growth of 2% this year and 2.3% in 2026.
The executive aims to achieve surpluses of 0.3% of GDP this year and 0.1% next year. The debt ratio is projected to decrease to 90.2% of GDP in 2025 and 87.8% in 2026.
The proposal will be discussed and voted in general on October 27 and 28. The final overall vote is scheduled for November 27, following the specialized debate process.
