The legislative elections held in Portugal this Sunday have plunged the country into a period of uncertainty, generating significant anticipation regarding the behavior of the newly configured Parliament. Without the possibility of “Luís working” without negotiations, neither of the two most-voted parties presents an immediate option.
The AD won the elections, securing more deputies than in the previous scrutiny. However, this is only sufficient for a minority government (at this point, four mandates are yet to be assigned, with the party holding 86 seats, far from the 116 needed for an absolute majority).
Key points to consider post-election night include:
1. **Third Election in Three Years and Continued Instability**
Portugal has held three legislative elections in three years (2023, 2024, and 2025), reflecting ongoing political instability. The most recent crisis was triggered by the fall of the Luís Montenegro Government following the Spinumviva case, a dossier that remains unresolved. Nevertheless, Luís Montenegro managed to strengthen his position.
2. **End of Bipartisanship?**
For the first time since April 25th, a party outside the traditional PS/PSD axis equaled the number of deputies of a historic party. It may even surpass it once the mandates of the migration circles are assigned. This result signifies a seismic shift in Portugal’s party system.
3. **New Elections in 2026?**
With a fragmented Parliament and no clear majorities, political analysts do not rule out the possibility of early elections in 2026 if a stable government cannot be formed. Should difficulties arise in policy approval or consensus reaching, Parliament might face dissolution again.
4. **What Can Luís Montenegro Do?**
Luís Montenegro has signaled his intention to form a minority government, as in 2024, relying on occasional parliamentary support. This approach requires agreements and concessions to pass policies. Currently, the social democrat is caught between a weakened PS and a Chega party with ideological differences.
5. **PS Suffers Worst Result Since 1987**
Pedro Nuno Santos resigned on election night after a result (23.38%) that marks a loss of 20 deputies compared to the previous elections, placing the PS in a tie for seats with the Chega party (numbers may change as overseas votes are counted). The only worse results for PS were in 1985 and 1987.
6. **Voter Turnout Reaches 64.38%, Among the Highest in Decades**
Voter participation was 64.4%, the highest since 1995, indicating a significant rise in civic engagement among the Portuguese. Abstention rates have decreased in the last two legislative elections, after a decades-long increase, reaching the highest level since 1975 in 2019 at 51.43%.
7. **Entire Left Declined, Except Livre**
On the left, only Livre increased its vote share, securing over 87,000 votes (6.87% of the total). While PS, BE, and CDU saw significant losses, Livre expanded its parliamentary representation to six deputies, solidifying itself as an emerging left-wing force. BE experienced a historic defeat, electing only Mariana Mortágua as a deputy, marking its worst result since the party’s founding.
8. **JPP Enters Parliament**
Juntos Pelo Povo (JPP), based in Madeira, has elected a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic for the first time, becoming the first party based outside Lisbon to achieve national parliamentary representation.
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