The study, part of the economic bulletin released today, reveals that the emigration rate among young individuals aged 25 to 34 was 18.2% in 2021, based on Census data. This compares to 19.2% in 2001 and 13.5% in 2011.
The BdP notes that “the young emigrants in 2001 still reflect emigration flows before April 25, 1974, including family emigration decisions,” indicating that “a significant portion of the young emigrants observed in 2001 would have left the country during their childhood.”
In contrast, “the 2021 figures are influenced by the strong emigration flows between 2011 and 2014, during the Economic and Financial Assistance Program,” although “even subtracting from the young emigrants in 2021 an estimate for the ’emigration excess’ between 2011-14, calculated by comparing these flows with the average of subsequent years, would imply a decrease in the emigration rate in this segment by less than 2 percentage points.”
Looking at the age breakdown, among those aged 15 to 24, where a large percentage are still in education, “the increase in the emigration rate is substantial,” with only 6.6% of this group emigrated in 2001, and by 2021, this figure had almost doubled to 12%.
“This trend reflects, on one hand, the growing number of Portuguese youth studying abroad, particularly within the European Union. Furthermore, the decision to emigrate arises early in the young person’s life cycle, both for those completing compulsory education and those with higher education,” according to the BdP.
The analysis also highlights the education and qualifications of young people. In 2001, 12% of emigrants had completed higher education, while 53% had not completed secondary education. By 2021, the fraction of emigrants with higher education rose to 31%, and those without secondary education had decreased to 35%.
“Thus, the decision to emigrate does not appear biased towards highly-qualified young people, as more qualified youths are less represented among emigrants than among young residents in Portugal,” notes the BdP.
Comparative data with Europe shows that the emigration rate of young Portuguese to European countries is among the highest in Europe.
Regarding destinations, young people emigrated primarily to France (48,000), the United Kingdom, and Switzerland (over 30,000).
This issue was one of the points of contention between the government and Mário Centeno, then governor of the BdP. Centeno argued that Portugal manages to retain recent graduates, whereas the Finance Minister emphasized that Portugal faces a “problem of retaining and attracting qualified young people,” which led to measures aimed at young people, such as the IRS Jovem.
Mário Centeno stated that Portugal manages to retain recent graduates, noting that the discussion about qualifications has been based on “misleading numbers” and suggesting that “Portugal has managed to be a net recipient of graduates.”
However, the Finance Minister pointed out that “public policies should be based on data, empirical evidence, and facts.”
“If we consider only the active population between 18 and 35 years, there is a significant drop in the number of graduates,” stated Miranda Sarmento. “By 2023, Portugal only had 611,000 graduates, meaning a reduction of 42,000 young people with at least a bachelor’s degree,” he highlighted at the time.
The official noted that Portuguese universities “train between 50,000 to 60,000 per year, plus master’s and doctoral degrees up to 80,000,” indicating that “between 2021 and 2023, we lost 42,000 young people with higher qualifications,” despite having trained 80,000.
