The newly released data from Tourism Economics highlight a shift in U.S. border control policies towards tourists with temporary visas, including more extensive questioning, phone inspections, and abrupt denial of entry, followed by detention and deportation.
Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, indicated that reports of various European tourists being searched and detained upon entering the U.S. have significantly impacted international travel plans.
Pedro Rios, director of the nonprofit American Friends Service Committee, remarked to PBS that this type of tourist detention was unprecedented. “The only reason I see is a much more fervent anti-immigration atmosphere,” he said.
The media coverage surrounding several of these detentions—some extending to three weeks without clear reasons—prompted countries such as France, Denmark, Germany, Finland, the United Kingdom, and Canada to caution their citizens about possible complications when traveling to the United States.
On March 28, Portugal joined the list of countries updating its travel advisories, specifically cautioning about gender identity issues and noting that a visa does not guarantee entry.
In Canada, the tariffs and hostile discourse from the new administration have notably reduced travel and bookings to the U.S. Between March and April, passenger numbers on flights from Canada to the U.S. plummeted by 70%, as reported by analytics firm OAG, with reservations dropping from 1.22 million to 296,000 compared to the same period last year.
For the peak travel season from April to September, projections are already 10% below 2024 levels, prompting airlines to cut back on capacity. Land crossings have also declined, with border authorities reporting 500,000 fewer Canadians entering the U.S. in February.
California, which annually welcomes about 1.8 million Canadian tourists, is already forecasting losses. Visit California, the state’s tourism promotion organization, has downgraded its tourist spending forecast by $6 billion (approximately 5.5 billion euros) for 2025.
Canada ranks as the second-largest source of tourists to California, following Mexico, yet many are rethinking their travel plans due to entry treatment concerns and controversial statements from the administration, which suggested the country should become the 51st U.S. state.
Border cities are witnessing declining hotel stays. Analytics firm CoStar reported a 3% decrease in hotel occupancy within 80 kilometers of the Mexican border, and an even steeper drop of 4.8% near the Canadian border.
Furthermore, tariffs imposed on 180 countries are exacerbating tourism industry challenges, as fewer tourists choose to vacation in or spend money in the United States.
The Tourism Economics report predicts that the ongoing trade war will impact both domestic and international demand. “Domestic travel will be negatively affected by the slowdown in wage growth and rising prices, while international travel will suffer from a trio of effects: slowing economies, a strong dollar, and adverse sentiment towards the U.S.”
Tourism significantly contributes to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), accounting for over $2 trillion annually.
The U.S. welcomed 72.4 million tourists in 2024, nearing pre-pandemic levels, a recovery now expected to reverse. Tourism Economics projects a return to these levels only by 2029, following the end of Trump’s administration.
