Forecasts for November, beginning this Saturday, suggest contrasting weather patterns throughout the month.
Alfredo Graça, geographer and editor-in-chief of Meteored Portugal, indicates that November will be “split into two parts concerning precipitation” and will experience temperatures “above average for this time of year” in the first half, with a decline during the last two weeks.
Thus, November appears to be “divided into two phases, one characterized by strong Atlantic circulation and the other by a blocking pattern.”
The forecast model used by Graça suggests that from November 1 to 9, a “temperate or mild environment will persist, with temperatures potentially 1 to 2 °C above the average for this time in mainland Portugal, with the most pronounced anomalies (+2 °C) expected in some Interior areas.”
From November 10 to 16, anomalies “may be more moderate across much of mainland Portugal, with thermal values up to 1.5 °C above the average. In the Azores and much of Madeira, temperatures are expected to be normal in the second week.”
In the second half of November, temperatures may return to seasonal norms, according to current map projections.
Up to November 10, Graça states that the European model anticipates above-average precipitation from north to south of mainland Portugal, particularly abundant in regions north of the Tagus (North and Center), as well as parts of Ribatejo and Alto Alentejo, showing significant precipitation anomalies (over 50 mm above normal).
Other mainland regions might also experience high precipitation anomalies. The Azores are expected to be much drier than usual, while Madeira could see wetter-than-normal conditions.
The European model senses a possible change around November 10-12, with a shift to a blocking pattern likely. Thus, the second half of November could feature more fluctuating polar jets and a rise in the latitude of high-pressure centers.
Recently, a storm battered Portugal on October 28 and 29, leading to widespread flooding across the country. Lisbon recorded the highest incidents yesterday, while today, Faro appears most affected.
The Civil Protection has logged over a thousand incidents, mainly related to flooding.
In the Algarve, flooding has affected homes and businesses, with cars submerged, particularly in the capital, as well as in Tavira and Vila Real de Santo António.
