The Directorate-General for Health (DGS) clarified on Monday that the winter season of 2024/2025 experienced a lower excess mortality compared to the previous one. The organization emphasized that comparisons based on absolute values must be interpreted accurately.
The analysis of winter seasons, spanning generally from week 40 of one year to week 20 of the next, indicated an excess of 3,302 deaths in the winter of 2023/2024, representing a 26% increase over expected levels. In contrast, the winter of 2024/2025 saw an excess of 1,206 deaths, translating to a 12% increase over expected levels.
“Even when analyzing absolute values, covering the period from week 40 of one year to week 5 of the next year, and during the influenza epidemic period of this season, there is a noted reduction in the number of deaths among older age groups,” the statement added.
The report highlighted that, within the 75-84 age group, 12,718 deaths were recorded in 2023/2024, compared to 11,141 deaths in 2024/2025. Among those aged 85 and over, 21,045 deaths occurred in 2023/2024, while 19,439 deaths were recorded in 2024/2025.
The DGS explained that merely comparing absolute mortality values over fixed periods such as quarters or months does not by itself provide conclusions about increases or decreases in mortality. “A rigorous mortality analysis should be conducted through excess mortality analysis, which is the difference between the observed number of deaths and the expected number, based on a baseline adjusted from previous years’ values, excluding atypical periods (such as disease outbreaks or prolonged cold spells) and considering the country’s demographic evolution, particularly the aging population,” it stated.
The organization further emphasized that “in a country like Portugal, with an aging population, the absolute number of deaths is expected to progressively increase over time. Thus, comparing raw death numbers between years without adjusting for these factors may lead to incorrect conclusions.”
“However, the mortality observed in a given period reflects the impact of various seasonal phenomena, including epidemics and environmental factors,” it added.
The DGS assured that it will continue to closely monitor mortality trends in Portugal and share necessary information transparently to monitor the health situation.
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