There is an expectation of a moderate drop in prices throughout 2025 as production partially recovers. This is driven by the incentive of high prices and a slowdown in demand due to the increased cost of raw materials, according to Paulo Monteiro Rosa, senior economist at Banco Carregosa.
In the absence of new climatic or political shocks, cocoa prices could fall to between ,000 and ,000 (between €5,545 and €6,470) per ton by the end of 2025, according to estimates from analysts at Bloomberg and Reuters, as reported by the bank.
In 2024, cocoa prices rose by more than 160%. The sector had already faced challenges in the previous year due to reduced harvests, causing prices to soar to ,000 (approximately €3,697) per ton.
This trend was influenced by factors such as poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for about 60% of global production, severe drought, plantation diseases, the impact of climate change, and decreased agricultural investment.
Financial brokerage firm XTB noted that in February alone, prices fell more than 31% from historic highs.
“Projections for 2024/2025 indicate a cocoa production in Ivory Coast of about two million tons, a considerable increase from 2023/2024, which was 1.85 million, although weather conditions in the coming months are a concern,” they highlighted.
In March, new fluctuations were observed, with prices hitting their lowest levels since March 2024.
ActivTrades analyst Henrique Valente emphasized that structural factors continue to affect supply and cocoa prices remain uncertain due to the phenomena impacting production.
“Volatility is expected to persist through 2025. If production does not significantly recover, cocoa prices are likely to remain high,” he argued.
Imperial, the owner of brands such as Regina and Pantagruel, acknowledged that the rising cocoa prices present a “structural challenge for the entire sector.”
However, Imperial has so far tried to avoid passing on these increased costs to the final consumer.
“With Easter, one of the most important campaigns for the sector, approaching, our commitment remains as always: to ensure the production and delivery of high-quality chocolate to Portuguese consumers. As a chocolate company, we continue to focus on a strategy oriented towards innovation and quality as our unique pillars, always seeking solutions that allow us to maintain the high standard for which we are recognized,” they concluded.
Similarly, Arcádia noted that the increased cost of raw materials had a direct impact on its production structure, and it has made efforts to absorb a significant portion of this increase.
Nevertheless, adjustments were necessary, and in 2024 Arcádia increased prices by about 10% on average. This year, prices have risen by approximately 7%.
“These adjustments are inevitable in a scenario of strong international pressure, but we have sought to maintain balance between sustainability and accessibility,” they stated.
