1.1 billion were transacted in the third quarter. The Market Pulse study, developed by JLL, also indicates that the absorption of offices in Lisbon confirms 2022 as the best year ever for this segment.
In the third quarter of 2022, commercial real estate investment soared: 1,100 million euros were transacted, bringing to 1,920 million euros the total volume invested until September, indicates JLL in the Market Pulse study, where it reveals that the Portuguese real estate market continued to exhibit “a strong performance” after a “more timid start to the year”.
The year-to-date figure is 43% above that recorded in the same period of 2021, thus reinforcing the good prospects outlined for 2022: “three months from the end is only €100 million away from matching the €2,020 million invested in the whole of last year (…) the expectations are for activity to exceed by at least 25% the result of 2021, despite anticipating some revision in the value of assets in the coming months and consequent adjustments in some prices,” indicates the study.
Tourism
At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2022, in the tourism sector, the main performance indicators largely exceeded the levels of activity seen in the last two years and, in most cases, had already recovered to levels very close to 2019, a year that marked new records in this market.
Residential market
The study also reveals that the residential market continued to exhibit resilient performance between July and September, underpinned by the continued mismatch between available supply and demand, with prices continuing to rise and sales stabilizing.
Demand is active from both domestic and international buyers, rapidly absorbing new supply as it arrives. It is expected that some natural retraction may occur in this market in the coming months, both in terms of absorption and in terms of a price adjustment.
Office Market
In Lisbon and Porto, the occupational activity totaled more than 293,000 m² between January and September, as far as the office market is concerned. In Lisbon, the historical record of absorption registered in 2008 has already been surpassed, with the current 248,000 m² confirming that 2022 will be an unprecedented year for the sector, according to the study. In Invicta, the absorption by the end of September reached 45,230 m². The study also points out that the demand for large areas, greater than 1,000 m², remains strongly active, with many companies choosing to pre-lease their future offices among the projects currently under construction.
Retail
Retail continues to strengthen its activity across all formats, leveraged by the recovery in tourism, indicates JLL. The brands, resuming their expansion plans, are focused on securing spaces in the main locations of the market, facing, however, some constraints imposed by the scarcity of available supply.
Despite the increase in consumer prices, the outlook for retail sales remains optimistic until the end of 2022. The study highlights prime shopping centers, retail-parks and stand alone stores, which are experiencing a positive performance supported by the arrival of the festive season.
Industrial and logistics market
In terms of the industrial & logistics market, the study points to the high new and quality supply, which continues to hold back further growth in occupational activity, which nevertheless already totals 323,000 m². This third quarter contributed about 50% to the year-to-date occupied area, about 163,000 m².
The volume of demand to be filled continues, however, to be substantial at this stage, so that new development projects continue to be announced, where a focus on supply qualification and environmental sustainability is evident.
The study also exposes the rise in construction costs, which has been negatively impacting the initial schedule foreseen for the completion of the new stock: it will continue to make it difficult to meet the existing demand.
For Pedro Lancastre, CEO of JLL Portugal, “the Portuguese real estate market continues to evolve in a very positive way, despite the macroeconomic environment and conditions, recording significant growth in virtually all transactional segments, proving not only its resilience, but also why it is one of the preferred asset classes for investment. The 3rd quarter was no exception and, taking into account all the processes currently underway and the contacts that reach JLL on a daily basis, there is no doubt that 2022 could be one of the best years ever for the sector”.
The CEO of JLL Portugal also states that “it is clear that we have many challenges ahead of us due to the economic context. We undoubtedly foresee a slowdown in absorption and price revisions in several segments, but the main impact should be felt mainly over the next year. This is because, despite rising inflation and rising interest rates, with the corresponding drop in the purchasing power of families and the financial capacity of companies, the unemployment rate is at historic lows and savings levels are high.
